Executive Summary

Q1 2025 was steady: book value per share rose to $10.65 and, with the $0.20 dividend, delivered a 2.0% economic ROE; EAD was $0.20/share and GAAP EPS was $0.21 .
Results were broadly in line with Wall Street: EPS matched $0.20* consensus while revenue of $20.4m exceeded the $19.1m* consensus; sequentially, EAD rose vs Q4’s $0.18/share despite lower total revenue . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Portfolio growth and mix shift continued: investment portfolio grew 6.2% q/q to $7.1B, with increased allocation to home equity; economic leverage remained conservative at 1.6x and liquidity was ~$132.5m .
Near-term watch items: management estimated April book value down ~3% on wider spreads, while securitization markets have re-opened with spreads ~50–75 bps wider; management expects a rebound as volatility abates .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Book value stability and earnings coverage: BVPS increased to $10.65; EAD rose to $0.20/share, covering the newly increased $0.20 dividend; economic ROE was 2.0% .
Strategic push into home equity: Co-sponsored ~$492m UPB closed-end seconds deal, retained $26m of non-Agency RMBS; purchased $128m home equity loans in Q1 and another $52m in April, positioning for higher ROE contribution .
Arc Home progress: lock volumes +48% y/y; reached breakeven in Q1 with improved gain-on-sale margins, supporting forward EAD contribution. “Arc Home…achieved breakeven.” “We anticipate growing contribution to our earnings available for distribution” .

What Went Wrong

April mark-to-market headwind: management estimates April BV down ~3% on wider spreads (50–75 bps wider on retained securities), highlighting ongoing sensitivity to market volatility .
Transaction costs: $1.1m of securitization-related expenses offset gains; warehouse financing still required as HEL aggregation scales (warehouse outstanding $223m) .
Legacy CRE overhang: one legacy WMC commercial loan reached maturity; MITT expects a forbearance and ultimate payoff in 2025, but it ties up ~$16m of equity and introduces timing risk .

Financial Results

Income Statement vs Prior Periods and Consensus

Metric	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Total Revenue ($USD)	$28.0m	$22.0m*	$20.4m
Primary EPS (non-GAAP/EAD)	$0.21*	$0.18	$0.20
GAAP EPS (Diluted)	$0.55	$0.30	$0.21

Values retrieved from S&P Global for cells marked with *.

Notes: Q1 2025 revenue comprises $18.849m net interest income + $1.549m other income = $20.398m . Q4 2024 revenue actual ($22.03m) from S&P Global aligns with MITT’s reported net interest income plus other income for the quarter*.

Q1 2025 Actual vs S&P Global Consensus

Metric	Consensus	Actual
Revenue ($USD)	$19.1m*	$20.4m
Primary EPS	$0.2009*	$0.20

Values retrieved from S&P Global for cells marked with *.

Selected KPIs (balance-sheet and operating)

KPI	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Book Value per Share	$10.58	$10.64	$10.65
Economic ROE	3.9%	2.4%	2.0%
EAD per Share	$0.17	$0.18	$0.20
GAAP Net Income to Common (EPS)	$0.40	$0.30	$0.21
Investment Portfolio (FMV)	$6.8B	$6.7B	$7.1B
Economic Leverage	1.5x	1.4x	1.6x
Liquidity	~$120m	~$136.9m	~$132.5m

Portfolio/Segment Mix (Q1 2025 snapshot)

Total financing: $6.74B; cost of funds ~5.34%; majority term, non-mark-to-market securitized debt .
Investment portfolio FMV mix: Non-Agency loans 93.7%, RPL/NPL 2.0%, Non-Agency RMBS 2.3%, Agency 0.3%, Legacy WMC Commercial 1.7% .
Asset-level yields/ROEs: HEL 9.3% yield; 20.9% ROE; Securitized Non-Agency 5.7% yield; 17.5% ROE; RPL/NPL 6.0% yield; 26.7% ROE .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Common dividend per share	Q1 2025	$0.19 (Q4 2024 actual dividend)	$0.20 declared (Mar 17, 2025)	Raised 5.3%
Book value (intra-quarter comment)	April 2025	N/A	Estimated down ~3% in April on wider spreads	Qualitative update
Leverage posture	2025	Conservative, low economic leverage	Economic leverage 1.6x; continue securitization discipline	Maintained stance
Securitization markets	2025	Functional (Q4)	Re-opened; spreads ~50–75 bps wider vs March	Conditions widened

Note: MITT does not provide formal quantitative forward guidance on revenue/earnings; management provides positioning and market color .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Home equity expansion	Initiated/accelerating; saw 20%+ ROE potential; committed to scale HEL	Increased allocation; $128m purchased in Q1; co-sponsored ~$492m UPB deal; +$52m in April; targeting programmatic securitizations	Positive momentum
Arc Home profitability	Improving; profitable Dec; breakeven/near-breakeven path into 2025	Breakeven in Q1; lock volumes +48% y/y; expect growing EAD contribution	Improving
Leverage discipline	Economic leverage 1.5x→1.4x; low vs peers; securitization-driven	1.6x; still conservative with significant non-recourse term funding	Stable
Securitization markets/liquidity	Multiple deals; market leadership in agency-eligible investor loans	Markets briefly shut in early April, now open with wider spreads; no forced issuance	More volatile, improving
Legacy WMC commercial	Maturities in mid/late 2025; equity release potential $20–25m discussed	One loan hit maturity; negotiating forbearance; ~$16m equity tied until payoff (expected 2025)	Managing through
Regulatory/GSE	Not emphasized	Potential GSE footprint reduction could create opportunities; MITT positioned via Arc Home + GCAT	Emerging opportunity

Management Commentary

CEO on valuation and positioning: “We saw book value largely unchanged…producing a healthy quarterly economic return on equity of 2%…We believe MITT is uniquely positioned…given our vertical integration with Arc Home…[and] securitization shelf GCAT…we believe MITT is extremely undervalued at today’s price.”
CIO on home equity strategy: “We believe this sector is in the early stages of development and is set to outperform other residential mortgage credit sectors…we are lending exclusively to borrowers…beneficiaries of large increases in home prices…we are confident in our ability to continue to deliver results.”
CFO on quarter drivers: “GAAP net income…$6.2 million or $0.21 per share…EAD of $0.20 per share, which increased from $0.18 in the prior quarter…grew our investment portfolio by 6.2% to $7.1 billion…economic leverage ratio…1.6x…liquidity of approximately $133 million.”
Market color: “By the end of [April], you saw deals coming back…Capital Markets are fully open…spreads are wider…50 to 75 [bps] wider…” .

Q&A Highlights

Legacy CRE maturity: One legacy WMC loan matured; pursuing negotiated forbearance with expected full payoff in 2025; ties up ~$16m of equity until resolution .
Funding runway for HEL growth: Capacity to increase leverage modestly and rotate capital as inefficient WMC financings roll off over next 2–3 quarters; continued aggregation planned .
Securitization market functioning: Market paused early April but reopened late April/early May; spreads wider, impacting retained securities marks, but issuance feasible .
HEL securitization economics: Retained non-IG stack typically advanced ~95% of market value; current funding “~200-ish” bps context; collateral mid-700 FICO, ~high-60s LTV .
Arc Home contribution outlook: Having reached breakeven, management expects Arc to add ~$0.01–$0.03/share to EAD as volumes/margins improve .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 EPS printed $0.20, essentially in line with $0.2009* consensus; revenue was $20.4m vs $19.1m* consensus (beat), as other income offset lower net interest income versus prior year . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Sequentially, EAD rose to $0.20 from $0.18 in Q4 despite lower revenue ($20.4m vs $22.0m*), reflecting portfolio mix (HEL) and cost discipline . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Given April mark-to-market pressure and still-open but wider spread markets, revenue/EAD estimates may modestly shift mix-driven rather than level-driven; management points to HEL ROEs ~20% and growing Arc Home contribution supporting medium-term EAD resilience .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Defensive execution: BVPS stability, low economic leverage (1.6x), and term, non-mark-to-market financing underpin downside protection through spread volatility .
Growth vector in HEL: Programmatic home equity securitization with attractive asset yields/ROEs (HEL 9.3% yield; ~20.9% ROE) is scaling and should support EAD over time .
Arc Home turning from headwind to tailwind: Breakeven achieved; improving lock volumes and margins point to incremental EAD accretion .
Watch April BV dip (~3%) and spread dynamics: Securitization markets have reopened, but with wider spreads; potential rebound in spreads could recover marks .
Legacy CRE resolution is a near-term catalyst: Forbearance path and potential 2025 payoff could free ~$16m equity for redeployment into higher-ROE assets .
Dividend sustainability: EAD covered the $0.20 dividend; rising HEL contribution and Arc profitability improve coverage durability if spreads stabilize .
Valuation angle: Management highlights perceived undervaluation versus intrinsic value given platform advantages (Arc Home, GCAT shelf, TPG sponsorship) .

Values retrieved from S&P Global: All consensus estimates and historical “actual” values marked with *. All other figures and qualitative statements are sourced from company filings and transcripts as cited.

AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. (MITT)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary